Alright David—let’s walk through this slowly and clearly, step by step, assuming the Toronto Maple Leafs finish in the bottom 5.
🧭 Step 1: Season ends
The Leafs finish, say:
👉 4th worst team in the NHL
That’s important because:
- They are in the lottery
- They have good odds, but not the best
🎰 Step 2: Lottery happens
All 16 non-playoff teams are entered.
Two draws take place:
- One for 1st overall pick
- One for 2nd overall pick
📊 Step 3: Leafs’ position going into lottery
Because they’re 4th worst:
- They have a meaningful chance at #1
- But 3 teams have better odds
🎲 Step 4: What can happen (3 simple outcomes)
🥇 Scenario A: Leafs WIN the lottery
- They get 1st overall pick
- Best possible outcome
👉 This is the “jackpot”
🥈 Scenario B: Leafs move up a bit
- They might win 2nd overall
- Or move up slightly depending on results
👉 Still excellent outcome
📉 Scenario C: Leafs don’t win
Then:
- Other teams jump ahead of them
Because only 2 teams can move up:
👉 Leafs can fall from 4th → maximum 6th overall
🔒 Step 5: Your “range” is locked in
As a bottom-5 team:
👉 Leafs will draft somewhere between:
- 1st overall (best case)
- 6th or 7th overall (worst case)
🧠 Step 6: Why this is still very good
Even if they fall:
- They still get a top prospect
- Likely a future core player
🧾 Simple example
Let’s say:
- Leafs = 4th worst
Lottery result:
- Team ranked 7th wins #1
- Team ranked 10th wins #2
Now:
- Those teams jump ahead
Leafs drop:
👉 from 4th → 6th overall
🏁 Final takeaway
If the Leafs are bottom 5:
👉 They are in a very strong position
They will:
- have a real shot at #1
- be guaranteed a high pick
- but cannot control the outcome
If you want next step, I can show you:
- the actual odds for each slot (1st–5th worst)
- or simulate what happens in a real lottery draw (very helpful to visualize it)
Perfect—let’s make this very concrete with a simple simulation so you can see it happen.
We’ll assume the Toronto Maple Leafs finish 4th worst.
🎯 Starting point (before lottery)
Rankings (worst → better):
- Team A (worst)
- Team B
- Team C
- Leafs 👈
- Team D
… (and so on)
🎰 Step 1: Lottery draw for 1st overall pick
Let’s say:
👉 Team C (3rd worst) wins
So now:
- Team C jumps to #1 overall
🎰 Step 2: Lottery draw for 2nd overall pick
Now another draw happens.
Let’s say:
👉 Team D (5th worst) wins
So now:
- Team D jumps to #2 overall
📊 Step 3: Now we rebuild the draft order
Top 2 picks are now locked:
- Team C
- Team D
Now we place the rest based on original standings:
- Team A (was worst) → now picks 3rd
- Team B → picks 4th
- Leafs (4th worst) → now pick 5th
📉 Final result for Leafs
👉 Leafs drop from 4th → 5th overall
🧠 Another quick scenario (better outcome)
Let’s reset.
Step 1:
👉 Leafs WIN lottery
They jump to:
- #1 overall
Done—best case.
😬 Worst-case scenario
Let’s simulate the worst possible outcome.
Step 1:
Team ranked 8th wins #1
Step 2:
Team ranked 10th wins #2
Both jump ahead.
Now Leafs drop:
👉 from 4th → 6th overall
📊 Your full range (this is the key insight)
If Leafs are 4th worst:
👉 They will draft:
- Best case: #1 overall
- Worst case: #6 overall
🏁 Simple way to think about it
Being bottom 5 means:
- 🎟 You’re holding a strong lottery ticket
- 📉 But you can still slide a bit
- 🏒 You’re guaranteed a top-tier prospect
🔥 The takeaway
You’re not guaranteed Connor Bedard…
but you’re guaranteed to be in the conversation.
If you want, next step I can:
- show the actual % odds for each position (1st–5th worst)
- or run a few more “realistic” simulations so you see patterns (very helpful)
Alright David—let’s go just as slowly for this one.
Now assume the Toronto Maple Leafs finish 6th worst.
🧭 Step 1: Where they stand
They are:
👉 6th worst team
So:
- Still in the lottery
- But weaker odds than bottom 5
🎰 Step 2: What they can win
Because of the NHL rules:
👉 A team can only move up 10 spots
So:
- 6th worst → can still win #1 overall
- No restriction here yet
🎲 Step 3: The 3 possible outcomes
🥇 Scenario A: Leafs win the lottery
- They jump to #1 overall
👉 Still possible—but less likely than bottom 5 teams
🥈 Scenario B: Leafs move up to #2
- They win the second draw
- Get #2 overall
📉 Scenario C: Leafs don’t win
Now this is where position matters more.
Other teams jump ahead.
📊 Step 4: How far can they fall?
Because:
- Only 2 teams jump up
👉 Leafs (6th worst) can drop to about:
8th overall (worst case)
📉 Example
Starting:
- Leafs = 6th worst
Lottery:
- Team ranked 9th wins #1
- Team ranked 11th wins #2
Now:
- Both jump ahead
Leafs drop:
👉 from 6th → 8th overall
📊 Final range
If Leafs are 6th worst:
👉 They will draft between:
- #1 overall (best case)
- #8 overall (worst case)
🧠 Why this is noticeably worse than bottom 5
Compared to 4th or 5th worst:
- Lower odds of winning
- Can fall further
- Less likely to land elite top-3 talent
🏁 Bottom line
6th worst is still good…
but you’re now on the edge of the premium zone
You still have a shot—
but you’ve lost that strong “top 5 advantage.”
If you want, I can now show you:
- the actual percentage odds difference between 5th vs 6th (it’s bigger than most people think)
I’m checking the current NHL lottery odds so I can compare 5th-worst versus 6th-worst accurately and not rely on stale numbers.
Yes — the drop from 5th worst to 6th worst is real, but it is not huge.
Using the current NHL lottery structure, the team finishing 5th worst has an 8.5% chance to win the first lottery draw, while the team finishing 6th worst has a 7.5% chance. The league’s lottery still uses two drawings, and no team can move up more than 10 spots.
So, in plain terms:
If the Leafs finish 5th worst, they are in a slightly stronger lane. They have better odds at the top pick, and they are still squarely in that “premium zone” where fans start paying close attention to lottery position. If they finish 6th worst, they are still very much in the mix, but the odds soften a bit.
The reason people talk about the bottom 5 is not that the rules suddenly change at No. 5. There is no special legal line there. It is more that the odds begin to taper as you move down the order. In the current table, the first six spots are 18.5%, 13.5%, 11.5%, 9.5%, 8.5%, and 7.5% for the first lottery draw. That means 5th worst still sits in a visibly stronger tier than 6th worst, even though both remain viable lottery positions.
The other key point is this: because the NHL lottery determines the top spots through two draws, and because teams can jump only 10 places, a team finishing 5th worst or 6th worst still has a pathway to the very top, but the closer you are to the bottom, the better your mathematical leverage. Only the top 11 seeds are eligible to move all the way to No. 1.
So the clean takeaway is:
5th worst: better odds, still in the stronger top-lottery group.
6th worst: still good, but a noticeable step down.